probability is very strange.

I always knew probability served some purpose – like when you need to know what your chances are of getting accepted into your competitive major. But, I didn’t think I would be applying to such a competitive major when I first entered UW. I had no idea I would come to fall in love with the subject of statistics.

There’s a lot of probability distributions out there. But, my favorite one of them all is the negative binomial distribution. Suppose X follows a negative binomial distribution with parameters s = 1 and p = something between 0 and 1 (not very important for this metaphor). Then, x represents the number of failures before s = 1 success. I think the negative binomial distribution is the best probability distribution to model the college experience. There will always be some number of failures before success.

I thought college was going to look like a CDF (cumulative distribution function). A CDF is a non-decreasing function that goes from 0 to 1. Basically, you start at the bottom, you end at the top, and it’s up the whole way. I was, however, very wrong. If you were to plot the highs and lows of my college experience, there would be plenty of peaks, but also plenty of valleys. At these specific times of my life, when I felt like I was in the lowest valley yet, I found myself upset, lost, and confused. Despite that, when I found myself at a local maximum (a peak), I didn’t take the time to appreciate my wins. Looking back on the bigger picture has given me a much deeper sense of gratitude for the whole journey – ups and downs. They shaped me into the person I am today and taught me lessons I needed to have, even if it was the hard way. We find a reason or lesson for everything that happens.

In just three years, I met the most unique people, reconnected with my Vietnamese heritage, grew into a researcher and statistician, mentored countless students, cried a lot, and laughed even more. Now who could’ve guessed the probability of all that happening?

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